核情報

2021. 8.10

米国の核問題専門家ら日本の政党党首に公開書簡──先制不使用宣言に反対しないで

長崎原爆投下76周年を迎えた8月9日、米国の核問題専門家らが日本の政党党首に対し、米国の核政策に関する公開書簡を送りました。書簡に署名したのは、ウイリアム・ペリー元国防長官ら21人と、「米科学者連合(FAS)」、「憂慮する科学者同盟(UCS)」、草の根反核平和団体「ピースアクション」など5つの団体です。(核情報からマスコミに発表した際に集計ミスがありました。お詫びして訂正いたします。)

内容は、「米国は先には核を使わない」、「米国の核兵器の唯一の目的は他国による核攻撃を抑止し、必要とあれば報復することにある」とバイデン政権が宣言することに反対しないで、と要請するものです。そして、米国がそう宣言しても日本が核武装することはないと確約することを求めています。

原爆投下した国の専門家が被爆国日本の政党になぜそんな要請を? と思われる方、ぜひ、書簡をご覧ください。連立政権の自公両党が、そして野党が、どんな反応をするのか? 注目されるところです。

参考:


米国の団体・個人から菅義偉首相及び他の政党党首に宛てた先制不使用・唯一の目的宣言に関する公開書簡 (核情報訳)

2021年8月9日

菅首相及び他の政党党首に対する要請:バイデン政権による先制不使用・唯一の目的宣言に反対しないこと

菅義偉様 自由民主党 (首相)
山口那津男様 公明党 (連立与党)
枝野幸男様 立憲民主党
志位和夫様 日本共産党
松井一郎様 日本維新の会
玉木雄一郎様 国民民主党
福島瑞穂様 社会民主党
山本太郎様 れいわ新選組

バイデン政権は、2022年1月に策定完了予定の「核態勢の見直し(NPR)」の中で、核戦争のリスクを減らすために、米国は先には核兵器を使わない/米国の核兵器の唯一の目的は米国自身、国外の米軍、あるいは、同盟国に対する核攻撃を抑止し、必要とあれば、報復することにある、と宣言することを検討するだろうと報じられています。

このような宣言は、同盟国との安全保障体制には──これらの国々への核攻撃に対する拡大核抑止も含め──影響を与えるものではありませんが、「非核攻撃に対する米国の核抑止の弱体化」を心配した米国の同盟国が独自核武装に向かうのではとの懸念が米国にあり、オバマ政権による先制不使用政策の採用を阻止した重要な要因となったと言われています[1]。 日本は、核武装する恐れが最も大きな国の一つとして挙げられています。

私たちは、日本政府の高官がすでに今年4月に、米国による先制不使用・唯一の目的宣言に反対する立場を表明したと理解しています[2]
核攻撃を受けた唯一の国であり、核廃絶を強く唱えてきた日本が核廃絶に向けたこの小さな──しかし重要な──一歩を阻止することになれば、それは悲劇的と言わねばなりません。

ここで思い起こしていただきたいのは、バイデンは副大統領として2017年1月に、次のように述べたということです。「我が国の核兵器以外の能力、それに今日の脅威の性格を考えれば、米国による核兵器の先制使用が必要となる──あるいはそれが意味を成す──信憑性のあるシナリオを想像するのは難しい。」そして、2020年3月にフォーリン・アフェアーズ誌の記事でこう表明しています。「私は、我が国の核兵器の唯一の目的は核攻撃を抑止し、必要なら、核攻撃に報復することであるべきと信じています。大統領として、私は、軍部及び同盟国と協議してこの信念を実現するために尽力します。」

以下に署名した私たちは、皆さま方が、首相として、あるいは日本の他の政党の指導者として、バイデン政権が先制不使用・唯一の目的政策を宣言することに反対をしないと宣言し、このような政策が日本の核武装の可能性を高めることはないと確約して下さるよう要請いたします。

敬具

団体

Federation of American Scientists
signed by Hans Kristensen, Director, Nuclear Information Project,
米国科学者連合(FAS)
署名 ハンス・クリステンセン 核情報プロジェクト・ディレクター

Greater Boston Physicians for Social Responsibility
Signed by Anna Linakis Baker, MPH, Executive Director
グレーター・ボストン「社会的責任のための医師(PSR)」
署名 アンア・リナキス・ベイカー 公衆衛生学修士 事務局長

Peace Action
signed by Kevin Martin, President
ピース・アクション
署名 ケヴィン・マーティン会長

Tri-Valley CAREs (Communities Against a Radioactive Environment)
signed by Marylia Kelley, Executive Director.
トライ・ヴァレー 「CAREs(放射能に汚染された環境に反対する諸コミュニティー)」
署名 メリーリア・ケリー事務局長

Union of Concerned Scientists
Signed by Stephen Young, Acting Director, Global Security Program
「憂慮する科学者同盟(UCS)」
署名 スティーブン・ヤング世界安全保障プログラム・ディレクター代理

個人

Bob Alvarez
Associate Fellow of the Institute for Policy Studies
ボブ・アルバレス
「政策研究所(IPS)」研究員

Tom Collina
Director of Policy, Ploughshares Fund
トム・コリーナ
プラウシェアーズ財団政策ディレクター

Steve Fetter
Professor, University of Maryland
スティーブ・フェター
メリーランド大学教授

Lisbeth Gronlund, Ph.D.
Research Affiliate, Laboratory for Nuclear Security and Policy
Department of Nuclear Science and Engineering, MIT
リスベス・グロンランド(Ph.D.)
マサチューセッツ工科大学核科学・工学部核安全保障政策研究所 研究員

Morton H. Halperin
Former Senior Official, Departments of State and Defense and National Security Council, United States Government
モートン・H・ハルペリン
米国政府元高官 国務・国防省及び「国家安全保障会議(NSC)」

Steve Gallant
Coordinating Committee of "No First Use: Decrease the Danger of Nuclear War" Coalition, and Board Member of Campaign for Peace, Disarmament and Common Security
スティーブ・ギャラント
「先制不使用:核戦争の危険を減らせ」連合運営委員会、「平和・軍縮・共通の安全保障のためのキャンペーン」理事

Joseph Gerson,
President, Campaign for Peace, Disarmament and Common Security.
ジョセフ・ガーソン
「平和・軍縮・共通の安全保障のためのキャンペーン」会長

Gary R. Goldstein
Tufts University, Professor of Physics
ゲーリー・R・ゴールドシュタイン
タフツ大学物理学教授

Dr. Laura Grego
Research Director and Senior Scientist, Global Security Program, Union of Concerned Scientists
ローラ・グレゴ博士
「憂慮する科学者同盟(UCS)」研究ディレクター及び上級科学者

Daryl G. Kimball
Executive Director, Arms Control Association
ダリル・G・キンボール
「軍備管理協会(ACA)」事務局長

Gregory Kulacki
Senior Analyst, Global Security Program, Union of Concerned Scientists
グレゴリー・カラキー
「憂慮する科学者同盟(UCS)」世界安全保障プログラム上級アナリスト

Peter Kuznick
Professor of History and Director, Nuclear Studies Institute, American University, Washington, DC
ピーター・カズニック
アメリカン大学(ワシントンDC)核問題研究所歴史学教授及びディレクター

Jeffrey Lewis
Professor, Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey
ジェフリー・ルイス
ミドルベリー国際大学院モントレー校教授

William J. Perry
former Secretary of Defense
ウイリアム・J・ペリー
元国防長官

Guy Quinlan,
President, Lawyers Committee on Nuclear Policy.
ガイ・クインラン
「核政策に関する法律家委員会(LCNP)」会長

Scott Sagan
Stanford University
スコット・セイガン
スタンフォード大学

Elaine Scarry
Cabot Professor of Aesthetics, Harvard University
author, Thermonuclear Monarchy: Choosing between Democracy and Doom
イレイン・スキャリー
ハーバード大学キャボット美学教授 『熱核君主制:民主主義と運命の間の選択』著者

Frank von Hippel
Program on Science and Global Security, Princeton University.
フランク・フォンヒッペル
プリンストン大学科学と世界安全保障プログラム

Sharon Weiner
Associate Professor, American University.
シャロン・ワイナー
アメリカン大学準教授

Lawrence Wittner
Professor of History Emeritus, State University of New York/Albany
ローレンス・ウィットナー
ニューヨーク州立大学(アルバニー)哲学名誉教授

David Wright
Laboratory of Nuclear Security and Policy, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
デイビッド・ライト
マサチューセッツ工科大学核安全保障政策研究所


  1. "Obama Unlikely to Vow No First Use of Nuclear Weapons, https://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/06/science/obama-unlikely-to-vow-no-first-use-of-nuclear-weapons.html; "'No First Use' Nuclear Policy Proposal Assailed by U.S. Cabinet Officials, Allies," https://www.wsj.com/articles/no-first-use-nuclear-policyproposal-assailed-by-u-s-cabinet-officials-allies-1471042014; ↩︎

  2. 2021年4月6日茂木外務大臣会見記録, https://www.mofa.go.jp/mofaj/press/kaiken/kaiken24_000049.html; 2021年4月6日官房長官定例記者会見(午前), https://www.kantei.go.jp/jp/tyoukanpress/202104/6_a.html , (核情報による文字越し, http://kakujoho.net/npt/motegivsokada.html#r5 ); 2021年4月21日衆議院外務委員会, https://kokkai.ndl.go.jp/txt/120403968X00920210421/23 ↩︎

Open letter to Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga and other leaders of Japan's political parties on NFU/Sole purpose by US groups/individuals

August 9, 2021

A Call for Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga and other leaders of Japan's political parties not to oppose a Biden administration declaration of a no-first-use or sole-purpose policy

To:
Mr. Yoshihide Suga. Liberal Democratic Party (Prime minister)
Mr. Natsuo Yamaguchi, Komeito (Junior partner of the coalition government)
Mr. Yukio Edano, Constitutional Democratic Party
Mr. Kazuo Shii, Japanese Communist Party
Mr. Ichiro Matsui, Nippon Ishin no Kai
Mr. Yuichiro Tamaki, Democratic Party for the People
Ms. Mizuho Fukushima, Social Democratic Party
Mr. Taro Yamamoto, Reiwa Shinsengumi

It has been reported that, as part of its Nuclear Posture Review scheduled to be completed in January 2022, the Biden administration will consider, for the purpose of reducing the risk of nuclear war, a declaration that the United States will not use nuclear weapons first and/or that the sole purpose of the U.S. nuclear arsenal is to deter and, if necessary, to retaliate against a nuclear attack on itself, its military forces abroad, or an ally.

Although the declaration would not affect security arrangements with allies, including extended nuclear deterrence against nuclear attacks on them, the concern that US allies – worried about "a weakening of the US nuclear deterrence against non-nuclear attacks"– might develop their own nuclear weapons, has been cited as a major factor that blocked adoption of a no-first-use policy by the Obama administration[1] Japan has been mentioned as one of the most likely countries to go nuclear.

We understand that high officials of Japan's government have already expressed opposition to a US non-first-use or sole-purpose declaration in April this year.[2]
It would be tragic if Japan, the only country to suffer nuclear attacks, and a staunch advocate of the abolition of nuclear weapons, blocked this small but important step toward the abolition of nuclear weapons.

We wish to remind you that as Vice-President Biden said in Jan. 2017, "Given our non-nuclear capabilities and the nature of today's threats—it's hard to envision a plausible scenario in which the first use of nuclear weapons by the United States would be necessary. Or make sense." Biden wrote in March 2020 in Foreign Affairs article that: "I believe that the sole purpose of the US nuclear arsenal should be deterring—and, if necessary, retaliating against—a nuclear attack. As president, I will work to put that belief into practice, in consultation with the US military and US allies."

We, the undersigned, call on you, as Prime Minster and other leaders of Japan's political parties, to declare that you will not oppose a Biden administration declaration of a no-first-use or sole-purpose policy and affirm that such a policy would not increase the likelihood of Japan acquiring its own nuclear weapons.

Sincerely,

Organizations

Federation of American Scientists
signed by Hans Kristensen, Director, Nuclear Information Project,
Greater Boston Physicians for Social Responsibility
Signed by Anna Linakis Baker, MPH, Executive Director

Peace Action
signed by Kevin Martin, President

Tri-Valley CAREs (Communities Against a Radioactive Environment)
signed by Marylia Kelley, Executive Director.

Union of Concerned Scientists
Signed by Stephen Young, Acting Director, Global Security Program

Individuals

Bob Alvarez
Associate Fellow of the Institute for Policy Studies

Tom Collina
Director of Policy, Ploughshares Fund

Steve Fetter
Professor, University of Maryland

Lisbeth Gronlund, Ph.D.
Research Affiliate, Laboratory for Nuclear Security and Policy
Department of Nuclear Science and Engineering, MIT

Morton H. Halperin
Former Senior Official, Departments of State and Defense and National Security Council, United States Government

Steve Gallant
Coordinating Committee of "No First Use: Decrease the Danger of Nuclear War" Coalition, and Board Member of Campaign for Peace, Disarmament and Common Security

Joseph Gerson,
President, Campaign for Peace, Disarmament and Common Security.

Gary R. Goldstein
Tufts University, Professor of Physics

Dr. Laura Grego
Research Director and Senior Scientist, Global Security Program, Union of Concerned Scientists

Daryl G. Kimball
Executive Director, Arms Control Association

Gregory Kulacki
Senior Analyst, Global Security Program, Union of Concerned Scientists

Peter Kuznick
Professor of History and Director, Nuclear Studies Institute, American University, Washington, DC

Jeffrey Lewis
Professor, Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey

William J. Perry
former Secretary of Defense

Guy Quinlan,
President, Lawyers Committee on Nuclear Policy.

Scott Sagan
Stanford University

Elaine Scarry
Cabot Professor of Aesthetics, Harvard University
author, Thermonuclear Monarchy: Choosing between Democracy and Doom

Frank von Hippel
Program on Science and Global Security, Princeton University.

Sharon Weiner
Associate Professor, American University.

Lawrence Wittner
Professor of History Emeritus, State University of New York/Albany

David Wright
Laboratory of Nuclear Security and Policy, Massachusetts Institute of Technology


  1. "Obama Unlikely to Vow No First Use of Nuclear Weapons, https://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/06/science/obama-unlikely-to-vow-no-first-use-of-nuclear-weapons.html; "'No First Use' Nuclear Policy Proposal Assailed by U.S. Cabinet Officials, Allies," https://www.wsj.com/articles/no-first-use-nuclear-policyproposal-assailed-by-u-s-cabinet-officials-allies-1471042014; ↩︎

  2. Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Press Conference by Foreign Minister MOTEGI Toshimitsu, April 6, 2021 (Provisional translation), https://www.mofa.go.jp/press/kaiken/kaiken4e_000873.html; Prime Minister's Office of Japan, Press Conference by Chief Cabinet Secretary Katsunobu Kato, April 6, 2021 (in Japanese), https://www.kantei.go.jp/jp/tyoukanpress/202104/6_a.html; Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi, Foreign Affairs Committee, House of Representatives minutes, 21 April 2021 (in Japanese), https://kokkai.ndl.go.jp/txt/120403968X00920210421/23 ↩︎

Backgrounder: Japan’s position on NFU/Sole (August, 2021)

Kakujoho (Nuclear information) website http://kakujoho.net/

Worrisome statements have been made by officials of the government of Japan in response to questions asked about an April 6, 2021 article in which a former Obama administration official [Thomas Countryman, Acting Under Secretary for Arms Control and International Security, 2016-17] stated that the opposition by Japan’s government, citing concerns about the weakening of the deterrence against China, was the most important contributor to the Obama Administration abandoning its efforts to adopt a policy of no-first-use of nuclear weapons.

At a regular press conference held on April 6, 2021, the day the above-mentioned article was published, Chief Cabinet Secretary Katsunobu Kato said:

“We do not believe no-first-use declaration would be meaningful unless all nuclear-weapon states did this simultaneously in a verifiable manner. At this point of time, we consider it difficult to fully ensure our country’s national security by relying on the concept of no-first-use where there are no means to verify the intentions of the nations involved… Around Japan, there is a concentration of nations with superior military power, both in terms of quality and quantity, and there has been a marked further strengthening of [their] military power and intensification of their military activities. As far as there exist national security threats against Japan, such as nuclear weapons, we consider that the extended deterrence of the US, including nuclear deterrence, is indispensable to Japan-US security arrangements.”

Two weeks later, on April 21, 2021, in a hearing of the House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee, Foreign Minister Motegi stated in response to a question asked by Constitutional Democratic Party member, Katsuya Okada:

“I don’t think NFU could function unless all the countries possessing nuclear weapons adopt it simultaneously in a verifiable manner. At this point in time, I consider it difficult to fully ensure our country’s national security by relying on the concept of no-first use where there are no means to verify the intention of the nations involved. There is basically no discrepancy of views on this point between Japan and the United States, according to my understanding.”

In fact, the NFU/Sole purpose policy being considered in the US would be a unilateral declaration, not reliant on promises of other nuclear armed nations. However, it must be noted that China unilaterally announced a no-first-use policy in 1964 after its first nuclear test and has reiterated that policy ever since. NFU/Sole purpose would not result in the US abandoning its security alliances with its allies including Japan. Non-nuclear threats would be deterred by conventional weapons and nuclear attacks would be deterred as before by the threat of nuclear retaliation.

The above statements by Kato and Motegi are repetition of Japan’s position on NFU expressed since 1982, and stated to the House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee on 6 August 1999 (Hiroshima Day) by then Foreign Minister Masahiko Komura:

"In today’s real international society, where a large military power possessing weapons of mass destruction such as nuclear weapons, exists, we consider it difficult to fully ensure our country’s national security by relying on the concept of no-first-use where there are no means to verify the intentions of the nations involved "

The logic of this line of thinking is that:

  1. Some of Japan’s neighbors (China, North Korea, Russia) possess both weapons of mass destruction (including biological and chemical) and large-scale conventional forces. As long as this situation exists, Japan cannot rely for its security on NFU.
  2. Even if all nuclear-armed nations declared NFU, Japan could not rely on these declarations because it could not verify the intentions of the nations involved.
  3. Therefore, Japan will never be able to support a US NFU policy.

As long as other Japan-US security arrangements are maintained, it is extremely unlikely that Japan would actually go nuclear if the US made a declaration of NFU/Sole Purpose. Nevertheless, Japan’s expressed position will be either genuinely interpreted or intentionally misused by opponents of NFU in the US as evidence that Japan might go nuclear if the US adopted such a policy.

Related article: Masafumi Takubo, “The Role of Nuclear Weapons: Japan, the U.S., and “Sole Purpose,” https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2009-11/role-nuclear-weapons-japan-us-“sole-purpose”.


核情報ホーム | 連絡先 | ©2021 Kakujoho